Question: Refer to the exponential model given in Problem 16.42. a. What is the fitted value of the series in the fourth quarter of 2018? b.

Refer to the exponential model given in Problem 16.42.
a. What is the fitted value of the series in the fourth quarter of 2018?
b. What is the fitted value of the series in the first quarter of 2018?
c. What is the forecast in the fourth quarter of 2019?
d. What is the forecast in t he first quarter of 2019?


Problem 16.42

In forecasting a quarterly time series over the five-year period from the first quarter of 2014 through the fourth quarter of 2018, the exponential trend forecasting equation is given by 

log Y; = 3.0 + 0.10X; - 0.250, + 0.200, + 0.15,

w here quarter zero is the first quarter of 2014 . Take the antilog of the appropriate coefficient from this equation and interpret the
a. Y intercept, b0.
b. Quarterly compound growth rate.
c. Second-quarter multiplier.

log Y; = 3.0 + 0.10X; - 0.250, + 0.200, + 0.15,

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To solve the given questions well use the exponential trend forecasting equation provided in Problem 1642 log hat Yl 3 01Xl 025Q1 02Q2 015Q3 Where log hat Yl represents the logarithm of the predicted ... View full answer

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