Question: 39. Consider a bookbag filled with 100 poker chips. You know that either 70 of the chips are red and the remainder blue, or that

39. Consider a bookbag filled with 100 poker chips. You know that either 70 of the chips are red and the remainder blue, or that 70 are blue and the remainder red. You must guess whether the bookbag has 70R-30B or 70B-30R. If you guess correctly, you win $5. If you guess incorrectly, you lose $3. Your prior probability that the bookbag contains 70R-30B is .40.

(a) If you had to make your guess on the basis of the prior information, what would you guess?

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