The CIA suspects that one of its operatives is a double agent. Past experience indicates that 95%

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The CIA suspects that one of its operatives is a double agent. Past experience indicates that 95% of all operatives suspected of espionage are, in fact, guilty. The CIA decides to administer a polygraph to the suspected spy. It is known that if a person is guilty, the polygraph returns a result that indicates the person is guilty 90% of the time. If a person is innocent, the polygraph returns a result that indicates the person is innocent 99% of the time. What is the probability that this particular suspect is innocent, given that the polygraph indicates that he is guilty?

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JAPHETH KOGEI

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