The following data represent 15 quarters of manufacturing capacity utilization (in percentages):

a. Compute three- and four-quarter moving averages for this time series. Which moving average provides the better forecast for the fourth quarter of 2003?
b. Use smoothing constants of α = 0.4 and α = 0.5 to develop forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2003. Which smoothing constant provides the better forecast?
c. Based on the analyses in parts (a) and (b), which method—moving averages or exponential smoothing—provides the better forecast?Explain.

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Quarter/Year Utilization 1/2000 2/2000 3/2000 4/2000 1/2001 2/2001 3/2001 4/2001 82.5 81.3 81.3 79.0 76.6 78.0 78.4 78.0 Quarter/Year 1/2002 2/2002 3/2002 4/2002 1/2003 2/2003 3/2003 Utilization 78.8 78.7 78.4 80.0 80.7 80.7 80.8