The gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States from 1993 to 2003 is given in the table below. The numbers are in billions of U.S. dollars. Develop forecasts for the GDP of 2004 using exponential smoothing with smoothing constants of 0.4 and 0.6. Assume the forecast is $6,657 for 1993. Which of these models has the lowest mean absolute deviation?

Year GDP ($Billions)

1993 .......... 6,657

1994 .......... 7,072

1995 .......... 7,398

1996 .......... 7,817

1997 .......... 8,304

1998 .......... 8,747

1999 .......... 9,268

2000 .......... 9,817

2001 ..........10,128

2002 ..........10,487

2003 ..........11,004