The Independence School is a private grade school that depends on enrollment forecasting to plan for the upcoming school year. The following data show the enrollments for the past several years. These data can also be found in the Excel file Independence School. xlsx.

a. Forecast the 2014 enrollment for the Independence School using four period simple moving average.

b. Calculate the MAD for the forecast in part a.

c. Forecast the 2014 enrollment for the Independence School using exponential smoothing with α = 0.4.

d. Calculate the MAD for the forecast in part c.

e. In which forecast do you have most confidence? Why?

Year Enrollment 2006 2007 2008 2009 624 645 659 643 Year Enrollment 2010 2011 2012 2013 630 625 641 656