Question: There is an ongoing debate about the roles of quantitative and qualitative inputs in demand estimation and forecasting. Those in the qualitative camp argue that
There is an ongoing debate about the roles of quantitative and qualitative inputs in demand estimation and forecasting. Those in the qualitative camp argue that statistical analysis can only go so far. Demand estimates can be further improved by incorporating purely qualitative factors. Quantitative advocates insist that qualitative, intuitive, holistic approaches only serve to introduce errors, biases, and extraneous factors into the estimation task.
Suppose the head of a theater chain is convinced that any number of bits of qualitative information (the identity of the director, the film's terrific script and rock-music sound track, the Hollywood "buzz" about the film during production, even the easing of his ulcer) influence the film's ultimate box-office revenue.
How might one test which approach-purely qualitative or statistical- provides better demand or revenue estimates? Are there ways to combine the two approaches? Provide concrete suggestions.
Suppose the head of a theater chain is convinced that any number of bits of qualitative information (the identity of the director, the film's terrific script and rock-music sound track, the Hollywood "buzz" about the film during production, even the easing of his ulcer) influence the film's ultimate box-office revenue.
How might one test which approach-purely qualitative or statistical- provides better demand or revenue estimates? Are there ways to combine the two approaches? Provide concrete suggestions.
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