1. Is seasonal exponential smoothing the best model for forecasting Urban Run athletic wear? Why?
2. Explain what has happened to the data for Urban Run. What are the consequences of continuing to use seasonal exponential smoothing? What model would you use? Generate a forecast for the four quarters of the fourth year using your model. Determine your forecast error and the inventory consequences.
3. Is exponential smoothing with trend the best model for forecasting five-pocket cargo jeans? Why?
4. What method would you use to forecast monthly cargo jean demand for the second year given the previous year’s monthly demand? Explain why you selected your approach. Generate the forecasts for each month of the second year with your method. Determine your forecast error and the inventory consequences.

Lenny Bram, owner and manager of Bram-Wear, was analyzing performance data for the men’s clothing retailer. He was concerned that inventories were high for certain clothing items, meaning that the company would potentially incur losses due to the need for significant markdowns. At the same time, it had run out of stock for other items early in the season. Some customers appeared frustrated by not finding the items they were looking for and needed to go elsewhere. Lenny knew that the problem, though not yet serious, needed to be addressed immediately.