Question: A probability-minded despot offers a convicted murderer a final chance to gain his release. The prisoner is given twenty chips, ten white and ten black.

A probability-minded despot offers a convicted murderer a final chance to gain his release. The prisoner is given twenty chips, ten white and ten black. All twenty are to be placed into two urns, according to any allocation scheme the prisoner wishes, with the one proviso being that each urn contain at least one chip. The executioner will then pick one of the two urns at random and from that urn, one chip at random. If the chip selected is white, the prisoner will be set free; if it is black, he “buys the farm.” Characterize the sample space describing the prisoner’s possible allocation options. (Intuitively, which allocation affords the prisoner the greatest chance of survival?)

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