Download the most recent data on outstanding mortgage debt and proceed with the search for a model with deterministic trends. Do you find any trend? With the new data, can you justify the polynomial trend of order 4 in Section 10.1? How different is the new model from the model in Section 10.1? Comment on the trend shape (long-term feature) and the potential autocorrelation once you account for the trend (short-term feature). Construct a short-term and a long-term forecast based on the new model. Split your sample into estimation and forecasting samples so that you will be able to evaluate your forecasts.