Question: Mr. A has received, over the last three months, a solicitation to purchase a service that claims to be able to forecast movements in the

Mr. A has received, over the last three months, a solicitation to purchase a service that claims to be able to forecast movements in the Dow Jones Industrial index. Normally, he does not believe in such things, but the service provides evidence of amazing accuracy. In each of the last three months, it was always right in predicting whether or not the index would move up more than 10 points, stay within a 10-point range or go down by more than 10 points. Would you advise him to purchase the sendee? Why or why not?

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