Question: Scuba diving certification, cont. You passed the scuba diving test! Your friend says: Not to rain on your parade, but you obviously got the easy

Scuba diving certification, cont. You passed the scuba diving test! Your friend says: “Not to rain on your parade, but you obviously got the easy test.” Given that you passed, what is the probability that you got the easy test?

Bayes’s rule is an extraordinarily powerful principle. To show how useful it can be, consider the following problem. If it is not immediately obvious how to attack this problem, it is almost always useful to draw a tree identifying the probabilities.

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