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business statistics communicating

Business Statistics Communicating With Numbers 1st Edition Kelly Jaggia - Solutions

Compare the stock performance of the Internet-based companies with non-Internet based companies in the dot-com boom-bust period.
Compute and interpret simple indices for each variety of meat, using January 2009 as the base period.
Compute and interpret the weighted aggregate price index, using January 2009 as the base period.3. Compare the above indices.
Evaluate the change in prices over the Reagan Era, including the annual inflation rate.
Calculate and interpret corresponding deflated economic indicators for 1981 and 1989.
Comment on changes in select economic indicators during Reagan’s presidency.
The consumer price indices for the years 2006, 2007, and 2008 are reported as 201.59, 207.34, and 215.30, respectively (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics). Use this information to compute the annual inflation rate for 2007 and 2008.
Tom Denio has been a project manager in a small construction firm in Atlanta since 2000. He started with a salary of $52,000, which grew to $84,000 in 2008. The revenue of the construction firm also grew over the years, increasing from $13 million in 2000 to $18 million in 2008. According to the
Let us revisit the introductory case with the data presented in Table 19.1. Using 2007 as the base year, compute and interpret the weighted aggregate price indices for liquor usinga. The Laspeyres methodb. The Paasche method
Table 19.6 shows the number o f condominiums, single-family homes, and m ultifam ily homes sold in Florida. Use these quantities, along with the price information from Table 19.5, to compute the Laspeyres price index for real estate, given a base year o f 2007.
A real estate firm based in Florida collects data on the average selling price of condominiums, single-family homes, and multifamily homes that it sold over the last three years. Table 19.5 shows the results. Compute the unweighted price index for the properties, using 2007 as the base year.
Update the index numbers in Table 19.3 with a base year revised from 2000 to 2005.
Consider the data presented in the introductory case of this chapter in Table 19.1. Use the base year of 2007 to compute and interpret the 2008 and 2009 simple price indices for:a. red wineb. white winec. 6-pack of beer
The quoted rate o f return on a one-year U.S. Treasury b ill in January 2010 is 0.45%(www.ustreas.gov). Compute and interpret the real rate o f return that investors can earn if the inflation rate is expected to be 1.6%.
Consider the adjusted close stock prices o f M icrosoft Corporation in Table 19.2.Find the monthly returns for November and December o f 2010.
Last year Jim Hamilton bought a stock for $35 and recently received a dividend of $1.25. The stock is now selling for $31. Find Jim’s (a) capital gains yield,(b) income yield, and (c) investment return.
Helen Watson purchased a corporate bond for $950 a year ago. She received a coupon payment (interest) o f $60 during the year. The bond is currently selling for$975. Compute Helen’s (a) capital gains yield, (b) income yield, and (c) investment return.
Revisit the Gas Production data on weekly U.S. finished motor gasoline production, measured in thousands of barrels per day.a. Construct the exponentially smoothed series with α = 0.20 and A 1 = y 1.b. Plot production and its corresponding exponentially smoothed series against weeks. Comment on
The United States continues to increase diversity, with more than a third of its population belonging to a minority group (CNN.com, May 14, 2009). Hispanics are the fastest-growing minority segment, comprising one out of six residents in the country. Table 18.6 shows a portion of data relating to
a. Revisit the Hispanic Characteristics data to estimate the exponential trend model for both the number (regression 1) and the median income (regression 2) of Hispanic households. Interpret the slope coefficients.b. Forecast the number as well as the median income of Hispanic households in 2008.c.
A tourism specialist uses decomposition analysis to examine hotel occupancy rates for Bar Harbor, Maine. She collects quarterly data for the past five years (n = 20)and finds that the linear trend model best captures the trend of the seasonally adjusted series: In addition, she calculates quarterly
Revisit the Nike Revenues data considered in the introductory case. Use the seasonal dummy variable model to make a forecast for Nike’s quarterly revenue in 2009.
Table 18,19 shows a portion o f data on net private housing units sold (in 1,000s), and real per-capita gross domestic product (in $ 1,000s); the entire data set is on the text website, labeled Housing Units. Let Housing denote housing units sold and GDP denote real per-capita gross domestic
Forecast sales o f fried dough and soft drinks for day 21 w ith the best-fitting series.
Calculate MSE and MAD for each series.
Construct the exponentially smoothed series for fried dough and soft drinks usingα = 0.30 and α = 0.70.
Given the conclusions on trend and the seasonal component, provide forecast values for the four quarters o f 2011 as well as total projected sales for fiscal year 2011.
Determine whether or not a seasonal component exists in the series, using the seasonal dummy variable approach.
Use a scatterplot to determine which model best depicts trend for W al-Mart’s sales.
F IL E In August 2010, the Department of Commerce reported that economic weakness continues across the country, with consumer spending continuing to stagnate.The government is considering various tax benefits to stimulate consumer spending through increased disposable income. The consumption
F IL E The S&P 500 Index is a value-weighted index of prices of 500 large-cap common stocks actively traded in the United States. A research analyst at an investment firm is attem pting to forecast the daily stock price of Genzyme Corporation, one of the world's leading biotech companies, using
F I L E following data represent a portion of quarterly net sales (in millions of dollars) of Lowe's Companies, Inc., over the past five years; the full data set can be found on the text website, labeled Lowe's Net Sales.Year Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 2004 $8,861 $10,169 $9,064 $8,550
FILE Use the data in the preceding question to:a. Estimate a linear trend model with seasonal dummies.b. Estimate an exponential trend model with seasonal dummies.c. Use the MSE and MAD to compare these models.d. Use the appropriate model to make monthly forecasts for the last three months of 2010.
FILE Revenue passenger-miles are calculated by m ultiplying the number of paying passengers by the distance flow n in thousands. The accompanying table shows a portion of m onthly data on revenue passengermiles (in millions) from January 2006 through September 2010; the full data set can be found
FILE While U.S. inventory levels remain low, there is a slight indication of an increase in the U.S. business inventory-to-sales ratio, due to higher sales (The Wall Street J o u rn a l, December 15, 2010). The accompanying table shows a portion of seasonally adjusted inventoryto-sales ratios from
FILE Consider the following portion of data on real estate loans granted by FDIC-insured Commercial Banks in the United States (in billions of U.S. dollars, base = 2007) from 1972 to 2007; the full data set can be found on the text website, labeled Loans.Year Loans 1972 489.27 1973 567.26⋮
FILE Prices of crude oil have been steadily rising over the last two years (The Wall Street Journal, December 14, 2010). Consider the following portion of monthly data on price per gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S from January 2009 to December 2010; the full data set can be found on
FILE Tourism was hit hard by the international financial crisis that began in the fall of 2008. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (December 20, 2010), tourism spending has picked up, but it still remains below its peak, which occurred in 2007. The accompanying table shows a portion of
FILE The following table lists a portion of the percentage (share)of total shipment of music that falls in the category of country and rap/hip-hop rock music from 1990–2008. The complete data set is on the text website, labeled Country and Rap.Year Country (in %) Rap/Hip-hop (in %)1990 9.6 8.5
FILE The U.S. housing market remains fragile despite historically low mortgage rates (AARP, July 2, 2010). Since the rate on 30-year mortgages is tied to the 10-year yield on Treasury bonds, it is important to be able to predict this yield accurately. The accompanying table shows a portion of the
FILE A research analyst at an investment firm is attempting to forecast the daily stock price of Home Depot, using causal models. The following table shows a portion of the daily adjusted closing prices of Home Depot y and the Dow Jones Industrial Average x from August 14, 2009, to August 31, 2009.
FILE The Phillips curve is regarded as a reliable tool for forecasting inflation. It captures the inverse relation between the rate of unem ploym ent and the rate of inflation; the lower the unem ploym ent in an economy, the higher is the inflation rate. Consider the follow ing portion of m onthly
Hiroshi Sato, an owner o f a sushi restaurant in San Francisco, has been follow ing an aggressive m arketing campaign to thw art the effect of rising unem ploym ent rates on business. He used m onthly data on sales($1,000s), advertising costs ($), and the unem ploym ent rate (%) from January 2008
FILE Consider the follow ing portion of data on y and x that appears on the text website, labeled Exercise 18.36.t y x 1 56.96 9,171.61 2 57.28 9,286.56⋮ ⋮ ⋮12 51.99 9,217.94a. Estimate y1, = ß0 + ß1 Xt- + єt.b. Estimate yt = ß0 + ß1yt-1 + є tc. Estimate yt = ß0 + ß1Xt-1 + ß2yt-1 +
FILE Consider the following portion of data on y and x that appears on the text website, labeled Exercise 18.35.t y x 1 18.23 17.30 2 19.82 16.05⋮ ⋮ ⋮12 22.75 13.66a. Estimate y1 = ß0 +ß + єt, to make a one-step- 1Xt-1 ahead forecast for period 13.b. Estimate yt = ß0 + ß1yt-1 + єt, to
F IL E Consider the following portion of data on the variable y. The data are on the text website, labeled Exercise 18.34.t y 1 29.32 2 30.96⋮ ⋮24 48.58a. Estimate an autoregressive model of order 1, yt = ß 0 +ß1yt-1 + є t,to make a one-step-ahead forecast (t = 25) fo r y.b. Estimate an
FILE Consider the following portion of data on the response variabley and the explanatory variable x. The data are on the text website, labeled Exercise 18.33.a. Estimate yt, = ß 0 + ß 1 X t - 1 + єtand yt = ß0 + ß1Xt-1 +ß2Xt-2 + єt.b. Use the appropriate model to make a one-step-ahead
FILE Use the Consumer Sentim ent data from the preceding question. Fit an appropriate polynomial trend model along with seasonal dummies to make a forecast for November and December of 2010.
FILE While there is still an overwhelmingly gloomy outlook, Americans are growing more upbeat about the economy (CNNMoney.com, October 26, 2010).The following table lists a portion of the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index. This index is normalized to have a value of 100 in 1965 and
FILE Revisit the Blockbuster data to:a. Estimate a linear trend model with seasonal dummies.b. Estimate a quadratic trend model with seasonal dummies.c. Use the appropriate model to make quarterly forecasts for 2009.
FILE Blockbuster Inc. has lately faced challenges by the growing online market (CNNMoney.com, March 3 , 2009). Its revenue from rental stores has been sagging as customers are increasingly getting their movies through the mail or high-speed Internet connections. The following table contains a
FILE The controller of a small construction company is attempting to forecast expenses for the next year.He collects quarterly data on expenses (in $ 1,000s)over the past 5 years, a portion of which is shown in the accompanying table. The full data set is on the text website, labeled Expenses.Year
FILERevisit the Treasury Bonds data to estimate a linear trend model with seasonal dummy variables to make forecasts for the first three months of 2011.
F IL E Consider a portion of monthly return data on 20-year Treasury Bonds from 2006–2010. The full data set can be found on the text website, labeled Treasury Bonds.Year Month Return (%)2006 Jan 4.65 2006 Feb 4.73⋮ ⋮ ⋮2010 Dec 4.16 SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank o f Dallas.a. Plot the above
FILE Hybrid cars have gained popularity because of their fuel economy and the uncertainty regarding the price of gasoline.All automakers, including the Ford Motor Co., have planned to significantly expand their hybrid vehicle lineup (CNN.com, November 9,2005).The following table contains quarterly
FILE Revisit the Exercise 18.23 data to estimate (a) a linear trend model with seasonal dummies, (b) an exponential trend model with seasonal dummies. Which of the two models has a lower MSE and MAD? Use the appropriate model to make forecasts for the next two months.Applications
FILE Consider a portion of monthly sales data for 5 years for a growing firm . The full data set can be found on the text website, labeled Exercise 18.23.Year Month Sales 1 Jan 345 1 Feb 322⋮ ⋮ ⋮5 Dec 10,745a. Construct the seasonal indices for the data.b. Plot the seasonally adjusted series
FILE Consider the following 20 observations, representing quarterly information for 5 years. The data are also on the text website, labeled Exercise 18.22.Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1 6.49 7.34 7.11 10.82 2 7.04 7.92 7.69 11.71 3 7.62 8.58 8.34 12.68 4 8.25 9.29 9.02 13.74 5 8.94 10.08 9.78 14.88a. Plot the
FILE Consider the following monthly observations for 5 years. The data are also on the text website, labeled Exercise 18.21.Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1 13 17 15 12 32 15 21 17 33 15 34 21 2 26 10 14 19 17 14 27 30 25 15 18 27 3 24 11 19 23 19 18 31 18 15 31 34 27 4 23 22
FILE Consider the following 20 observations, representing quarterly information for 5 years. The data are also on the text website, labeled Exercise 18.20.Year Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 1 8.37 12.78 8.84 15.93 2 10.03 12.48 8.91 24.81 3 9.61 9.65 15.93 22.00 4 8.80 11.45 6.79 10.16 5
Ten years of monthly data of a seasonally adjusted series are used to estimate a linear trend model as In addition, seasonal indices for January and February are calculated as 1.04 and 0.92, respectively. Make a forecast for the first two months of next year.
Eight years of quarterly data of a seasonally adjusted series are used to estimate an exponential trend model as 2.80 + 0.03f with a standard error of the estimate, se = 0.08.In addition, quarterly seasonal indices are calculated asŜ1 = 0.94, Ŝ2 = 1.08, Ŝ3 = 0.86, and Ŝ 4 = 1.12.a. Interpret
Six years of quarterly data of a seasonally adjusted series are used to estimate a linear trend model as In addition, quarterly seasonal indices are calculated as Ŝ1 =0.93, Ŝ 2 = 0.88, Ŝ 3 = 1.14, and Ŝ 4 = 1.05.a. Interpret the first and fourth quarterly indices.b. Make a forecast for all four
FILE While the national unemployment rate may have ticked up slightly in 2010, in states such as California, Nevada, and Michigan the employment picture continues to look grim (CNNMoney, September 21, 2010). Consider the following table, which lists a portion of the monthly unemployment rates
F IL E Rapid advances in technology have had a profound im pact on the United States recording industry (The New York Times, July 28,2008). W hile cassette tapes gave vinyl records strong com petition, they were subsequently eclipsed by the introduction of the compact disc (CD)in the early 1980s.
The potentially deadly 2009 Swine Flu outbreak was due to a new flu strain o f subtype H1N1 not previously reported in pigs. When the W orld Health Organization declared a pandemic, the virus continued to spread in the United States, causing illness along w ith regular seasonal influenza viruses.
Despite the growth in digital entertainm ent, the nation's 400 amusement parks have managed to hold on to visitors, as the following data show:Year Visitors (in millions)2000 317 2001 319 2002 324 2003 322 2004 328 2005 335 2006 335 2007 341 SOURCE: International Association of Amusement Parks and
FILE Consider the follow ing table, consisting of 20 observations of the variable y and tim e t. The data are also on the text website, labeled Exercise 18.12.t y t y t y t y 1 10.32 6 13.84 11 16.95 16 16.26 2 12.25 7 14.39 12 16.18 17 16.77 3 12.31 8 14.40 13 17.22 18 17.10 4 13.00 9 15.05 14
FILE Consider the following table, consisting of 20 observations of the variable y and tim e t. The data are also on the text website, labeled Exercise 18.11.t yt y ty ty 1 3.01 6 4.94 11 7.28 16 14.16 2 3.13 7 6.10 12 9.04 17 14.85 3 4.19 8 5.91 13 9.49 18 16.77 4 5.07 9 6.56 14 12.12 19 18.07 5
F I L E The accompanying table shows a portion of monthly data on seasonally adjusted inflation and unemployment rates in the United States from January 2009 to November 2010; the entire data set is on the text website, labeled Unemployment and Inflation.Year Month Unemployment Inflation 2009 Jan
F I L E Consider the following table, which shows a portion of the closing prices of the S&P 500 Index for 21 trading days in November 2010. The complete data set can be found on the text website, labeled S&P Price.Date S&P Price 1-Nov 1184.38 2-Nov 1193.57⋮ ⋮30-Nov 1180.55 Source:
F I L E According to the Census Bureau, the number of people below the poverty level has been steadily increasing (CNN, September 16, 2010). This means many families are finding themselves there for the first time. The following table shows a portion of the percent of families in the United States
F I L E Use the data from the preceding question for the share of total shipment of music that falls in the category of rock music from 1990–2008.a. Make a forecast for the share of rock music in 2009 using the exponential smoothing method with α = 0.4.b. Make a forecast for the share of rock
F IL E Rock'n'roll is a form of music that evolved in the United States and very quickly spread to the rest of the world. The interest in rock music, like any other genre, has gone through ups and downs over the years. The Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA) reports consumer trends on
F I L E Consider the following sample data, consisting of 20 observations. The data are also on the text website, labeled Exercise 18.4.t 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 yt 14 17 12 16 18 16 15 19 23 23 t 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 yt 18 19 19 21 21 25 23 26 23 20a. Use the 3-period moving average to make
FILE Consider the following sample data, consisting of 20 observations. The data are also on the text website, labeled Exercise 18.2.t 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 y t 27 35 38 33 34 39 40 38 48 35 t11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 yt 37 38 35 44 40 37 30 39 34 45a. Construct a 5-period moving average and
F I L E Consider the following sample data, consisting of 10 observations. The data are also on th e text website, labeled Exercise 18.1.t 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 yt 11 12 9 12 10 8 11 12 10 9a. Construct a 3-period moving average and plot it along with the actual series. Comment on smoothing.b. Use
Use causal forecasting models to make forecasts. pg-75
Use trend regression models with seasonal dummy variables to make forecasts. pg-75
Use decomposition analysis to make forecasts. pg-75
Calculate and interpret seasonal indices and use them to seasonally adjust a time series. pg-75
Use trend regression models to make forecasts. pg-75
Use smoothing techniques to make forecasts. pg-75
Distinguish among the various models used in forecasting. pg-75
The objective outlined in the introductory case is to determ ine if there is any gender or age discrim ination at a large liberal arts college. Use the data in Table 17.1 to answ er the follow ing questions.a. Estim ate y = β 0 + β1x + β 2d 1 + β3d2 + ε , w here y is the annual salary
A recent article suggests that Asian-Americans face serious discrimination in the college admissions process (The Boston Globe, February 8, 2010). Specifically, Asian applicants typically need an extra 140 points on the SAT to compete with white students. Another report suggests that colleges are
In Section 17.1 we estimated a regression model that tested for gender and age discrimination in salaries. We found that the number of years of experience x and the gender dummy d 1 were significant in explaining salary differences; however, the age dummy d2 was insignificant. In an attempt to
The subprime mortgage crisis has forced financial institutions to be extra stringent in granting mortgage loans. Many seemingly creditworthy applicants are having their loan requests denied. Thirty recent mortgage applications were obtained to analyze the mortgage approval rate. The response
Let us revisit Example 17.5, based on the Mortgage Applications data, a portion of which was presented in Table 17.9. Estimate and interpret a logit model for mortgage approval y based on the applicant’s percentage of down payment x 1 and the applicant’s percentage of income-to-loan ratio x2.
A regression model with a dummy variabled, a quantitative variable x , and an interaction variable xd is specified b y y = β 0 + β1x + β 2d + β 3xd + ε . We estimate this model to make predictions as ŷ = (b0 + b2) + (b1 + b3)x for d = 1, and as ŷ = b0 + b1x for d = 0. In addition, we can
Choose which model is more reliable in predicting the probability of passing the CFA exam. Provide at least one reason for your choice. P-36
Analyze a logit model to explain the probability of success. Predict the probability of passing the CFA exam for a candidate with various values of college GPA and years of experience.
Analyze a linear probability model to explain the probability of success. Predict the probability of passing the CFA exam for a candidate with various values of college GPA and years of experience.
F IL E E stim ate th e logit m odel w ith th e above Parole data.a. Are th e results consistent with th e claims of o th er studies with respect to age and gender?b. Predict th e probability of a 25-year-old m ale parolee com m itting an o th er crime; repeat the prediction for a 25-year-old fem
FILE More and more parole boards are using risk assessment tools w hen trying to determ ine an individual's likelihood of returning to crim e (The Boston Globe, February 2 0 , 2011). M ost o f th e se m odels are b ased on a range of character traits an d biographical facts a b o u t an individual.
FILE Use th e Seton Hall data to estim ate the logit model.a. Analyze th e significance of th e variables at th e 5% level.b. Use th e above estim ates to predict th e probability of adm ission for an individual w ith a GPA of 3.5 and a SAT score of 1700.c. R e-estim ate th e probabilities w ith a
F I L E Seton Hall University is a Roman Catholic university situated in New Jersey, w ith easy access to New York City.Like m o st universities, it uses SAT scores and high school GPA as prim ary criteria for adm ission. The accom panying table show s a portion of d ata concerning inform ation on
F I L E According to th e C enter for Disease Control and Prevention, life expectancy at ag e 65 in America is ab o u t 18.7 years. Medical researchers have argued th a t while excessive drinking is detrim ental to health, drinking a little alcohol every day, especially wine, may be associated w
F I L E According to th e U.S. D epartm ent of Health and Hum an Services, African-American w om en have th e highest rates of being overw eight com pared to o th er groups in th e U.S.Individuals are considered overw eight if their body m ass index (BMI) is 25 or greater. Consider th e following
An analyst studies quarterly data on th e relationship b etw een retail sales (y , in $ millions), gross national product(x, in $ billions), and a quarterly dum m y d th a t equals 1 if th e sales are for th e 4th quarter; 0 otherw ise. He estim ates th e m odel y = β 0 + β1x + β 2d + β3x d +

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