An information technology analyst believes that her company is losing customers on its website who find the checkout and purchase system too complicated. She adds a one-click feature to the website to make it easier, but finds that only about 10% of the customers are using it. She decides to launch an ad awareness campaign to tell customers about the new feature in the hope of increasing the percentage. She doesn’t see much of a difference, so she hires a consultant to help her. The consultant selects a random sample of recent purchases, tests the hypothesis that the ads produced no change against the alternative (that the percentage who use the one-click feature is now greater than 10%), and finds a P-value of 0.22. Which conclusion is appropriate? Explain.

a) There’s a 22% chance that the ads worked.

b) There’s a 78% chance that the ads worked.

c) There’s a 22% chance that the null hypothesis is true.

d) There’s a 22% chance that natural sampling variation could produce poll results at least as extreme as these if the use of the one-click feature has increased.

e) There’s a 22% chance that natural sampling variation could produce poll results at least as extreme as these if there’s really no change in website use.