During May, young moose, unfamiliar with roads and traffic, are wandering around at night in Newfoundland, causing risk of road accidents. Suppose that in 2016 the average number of road accidents involving moose was 4.1 per day during May. The government increased the number of hunting licences and cleared brush from the roadsides to improve drivers’ visibility. On one day in May 2017 there were two road accidents involving moose.

a) What would be the chance of two such accidents or fewer, assuming the government’s measures were ineffective?

b) Do you think the government’s measures were effective? State your reasons clearly.