Refer to the event tree in Figure 3.10 and the data in Table 3.6. Suppose the company operating this CSTR decides to hire an expert operator in response to the runaway reaction in April. This operator claims he can perform twice as well as a regular operator (i.e., he fails half as often). Had this operator been working at the plant during April, what is the probability that the runaway reaction would not have occurred assuming that the expert operator would not have affected the malfunctioning quench valve? If there is only a 5\% chance of another runaway reaction occurring in the next year using the current operators, what is the probability of a runaway reaction occurring using the expert operator. Qualitatively, if this operator is as effective as claimed, would it be in the company's best interest to hire him, even if he demanded a significantly higher salary than a regular operator?

Data From Figure 3.10:-

Data From Table 3.6:-

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SS SS Abnormal Event 1-x1 x1 1-X2 1-x3 Figure 3.10 Sample event tree. x2 X3 C4 SS3