Question: When predicting the chance that we will elect a Republican President in the year 2012, we could reason that there are two possible outcomes (Republican,

When predicting the chance that we will elect a Republican President in the year 2012, we could reason that there are two possible outcomes (Republican, not Republican), so the probability of a Republican President is 1/2 or 0.5. Is this reasoning correct? Why or why not?

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