Question: 4. It is surprising that the straight-line projection method is used trend-line projection for short-term horizons. Given seasonality and cyclical factors, ups and downs in

4. It is surprising that the straight-line projection method is used trend-line projection for short-term horizons. Given seasonality and cyclical factors, ups and downs in the short-term make straight-line extrapola-

tions highly inaccurate. Even for the medium-term, trend-line extrapolation is not very accurate, according to empirical stud-

ies.

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