During September 1992, options on ERM currencies with strike prices outside the ERM bands had positive values.

Question:

During September 1992, options on ERM currencies with strike prices outside the ERM bands had positive values. At the same time, actual currency volatility was close to zero.

a. Is there a paradox here? Explain.

b. Why might actual currency volatility have been close to zero? What does a zero volatility imply about the value of currency options?

c. What does the positive values of ERM options outside the bands tell you about the market’s perceptions of the possibility of currency devaluations or revaluations?

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