Analyze each of the following arguments in terms of the variation of the “phenomena” to show how they follow the pattern of the method of concomitant variation:

Whenever the U.S. says things that make a military conflict with Iran seem more likely, the price of oil rises, strengthening Iran’s regime rather than weakening it. The more we talk about curbing Iranian power, the more difficult it gets. . . . So cooling down the martial rhetoric, even if we plan to take military action eventually, would likely bring oil prices down, making Iran weaker. . . . Lower oil prices won’t, by themselves, topple the mullahs in Iran. But it’s significant that, historically, when oil prices have been low, Iranian reformers have been ascendant and radicals relatively subdued, and vice versa when prices have been high. Talking tough may look like a good way of demonstrating U.S. resolve, but when tough talk makes our opponent richer and stronger we may accomplish more by saying less.
—James Surowieki, “Troubled Waters over Oil,”
The New Yorker, 19 February 2007