Calangute Beach Resort, a fictional sea-side luxury hotel in Goa, India, had the following occupancy rates for 12 months of 2014:

1. Forecast the occupancy rate for January 2015 using simple exponential smoothing with α = 0.4. Assume that the forecast for month 2 (F₂) is 65%.

2. Forecast the January 2015 occupancy rate using trend adjusted simple exponential smoothing with α = 0.4 and β = 0.2. Assume that the forecast for month 2 (F₂) is 68% and the trend factor for month 2 is T₂ = 0.

3. Which of the two forecasting methods is more accurate? Compute the MSE/Bias forecasting error measure to answer the question.

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Month 3 4 10 11 12 Occupancy rate in % 65 68 72 75 78 83 92 88 76 65 64 69 65