The Bayside Fountain Hotel is adjacent to County Coliseum, a 24,000-seat arena that is home to the city’s professional basketball and ice hockey teams and that hosts a variety of concerts, trade shows, and conventions throughout the year. The hotel has experienced the following occupancy rates for the past 9 years, since the coliseum opened:
Year .......... Occupancy Rate (%)
1 ................ 83
2 ................ 78
3 ................ 75
4 ................ 81
5 ................ 86
6 ................ 85
7 ................ 89
8 ................ 90
9 ................ 86

Compute an exponential smoothing forecast with a = .20, an adjusted exponential smoothing forecast with α = .20 and β = .20 and a linear trend line forecast. Compare the three forecasts, using MAD and average error ( ), and indicate which seems to be most accurate.