6 We are using simple exponential smoothing to predict monthly auto sales at Bloomington Ford. The company believes that sales do not exhibit trend or seasonality, so simple exponential smoothing has yielded satisfactory forecasts for the most part. Each March, however, Bloomington Ford has observed that sales tend to exceed the simple exponential smoothing forecast (AFeb) by 200. Suppose that at the end of February 2004, At  600. During March 2004, 900 cars are sold.

a Using a  0.3, determine (at the end of March 2004)

a forecast for April 2004 car sales.

b Assume that at the end of March, MAD  60. We are 95% sure that April sales will be between _____ and _____.