In September 20, 2017, Puerto Rico was struck by Hurricane Maria, a powerful storm with 155 mph sustained winds. In May 2018, multiple media outlets reported the findings of a study5 in which researchers used September to December 2017 data to estimate that 4645 people had died in Puerto Rico, directly or indirectly, due to Hurricane Maria. The news shocked many, since at the time the local government had stated a total of 64 people had died due to the storm. Indeed, the study was one of several indicating the official estimate of 64 was too low. Before the news broke, the Puerto Rican government had not publicly shared death certificate6 data. Due to growing pressure from the study results, the government released data on the number of death certificates (Table 1.1). How does the released data suggests that the 4645 number may have been wrong?

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Table 1.1 Death certificates in Puerto Rico by month and year. Causes of death not provided. Numbers in bold include death certificates after Hurricane Maria. Month January February March April May June July August September October November December 2015 2744 2403 2427 2259 2340 2145 2382 2272 2258 2393 2268 2516 2016 2742 2592 2458 2241 2312 2355 2456 2427 2367 2357 2484 2854 Year 2017 2894 2315 2494 2392 2390 2369 2367 2321 2928 3040 2671 2820 2018 2821 2448 2643 2218 1