Question: You have been asked to use decision tree analysis with EMV to assess the risk in selecting among three different projects, each with unique expenses,
You have been asked to use decision tree analysis with EMV to assess the risk in selecting among three different projects, each with unique expenses, risks, and expected monetary outcomes, with estimates shown below:
a. Draw a decision tree analysis chart with values from the table shown here, filling in the amounts for EMV totals.
b. Which project presents the best alternative, based on this information, for a risk-averse organization?
c. Which project presents the best alternative, based on this information, for a risk-seeking organization?
Probability/Outcome Complete Success Probability/Outcome Partial Success Project 1 20% / $60,000 40% / $50,000 Probability/Outcome Complete Failure 40% / $65,000 Project 2 15% / $75,000 55% / $35,000 30% / $70,000 Project 3 10% / $150,000 20% / $75,000 70% / $80,000
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