Question: 3) You have been asked by your project manager Ben Tennyson to use decision tree analysis with Expected Monetary Value (EMV) to assess the risk

 3) You have been asked by your project manager Ben Tennyson

3) You have been asked by your project manager Ben Tennyson to use decision tree analysis with Expected Monetary Value (EMV) to assess the risk in selecting among three different projects, each with unique expenses, risks, and expected monetary outcomes, with estimates is shown in TABLE 2. Project 1 Project 2 CS PS CF CS PS CF CS PS CF TABLE 2 Outcome Probabilities Outcome +/- 0.2 80,000 0.4 50,000 0.4 -15,000 0.15 95,000 0.55 35,000 0.3 -20,000 0.1 200,000 0.2 120,000 0.7 -20,000 Project 3 CS PS complete success partial success complete failure CF a) Draw a decision tree analysis chart for Ben using the values from TABLE 2, filling in the amounts for EMV totals b) Ben has long been known as a risk taker, advise him on the best alternative based on this information, for a risk-seeking organization, give reasons for your choice? c) Ben's partner Gwen Tennyson is risk adverse, advise her on the best alternative, based on this information for a risk-seeking adverse organisations, give reasons for your choice? d) How might the techniques of simulation, and sensitivity analysis be used by Ben and Gwen? Provide an example for each. 3) You have been asked by your project manager Ben Tennyson to use decision tree analysis with Expected Monetary Value (EMV) to assess the risk in selecting among three different projects, each with unique expenses, risks, and expected monetary outcomes, with estimates is shown in TABLE 2. Project 1 Project 2 CS PS CF CS PS CF CS PS CF TABLE 2 Outcome Probabilities Outcome +/- 0.2 80,000 0.4 50,000 0.4 -15,000 0.15 95,000 0.55 35,000 0.3 -20,000 0.1 200,000 0.2 120,000 0.7 -20,000 Project 3 CS PS complete success partial success complete failure CF a) Draw a decision tree analysis chart for Ben using the values from TABLE 2, filling in the amounts for EMV totals b) Ben has long been known as a risk taker, advise him on the best alternative based on this information, for a risk-seeking organization, give reasons for your choice? c) Ben's partner Gwen Tennyson is risk adverse, advise her on the best alternative, based on this information for a risk-seeking adverse organisations, give reasons for your choice? d) How might the techniques of simulation, and sensitivity analysis be used by Ben and Gwen? Provide an example for each

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