Question: 1 . Based on the base case scenario and the two alternative downside possibilities , is this inves is thi ment economically attractive ? 2

1 . Based on the base case scenario and the two alternative downside possibilities , is this inves is thi ment economically attractive ? 2 . What benefit can Monte Carlo simulation add to Joe and Mick's understanding of the eco nomic benefits of the Little Judson Prospect ? 3 . Incorporate uncertainties into the spreadsheet using Crystal Ball . What do the Monte Carlo results reveal ? What is the probability that the NPV will be greater than zero ? How sensitive is he MPV to the different inputs ? 4 . Think about the proper di scount rate - should it be adjusted now that much of the risk ha as been modeled explicitly with Crystal Ball ? Should Mick invest

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