1. Identify possible data patterns in the historical data (inventory cases, 2016-2020). Draw the data plot using Excel. That will help you to see the possible data patterns. Does the historical data have a Seasonal pattern? Trend pattern? Horizontal pattern? Explain. (10 points)

2. Based on the data patterns, apply all of the following possible forecasting models: linear trend forecast, trend and seasonal forecast with dummy variables, and moving average forecast with periods k=2 and k=4. Explain why these methods may or may not be used for forecasting in this case. (5 + 5 + 5 + 5 = 20 points)

3. Utilize Excel to identify the best forecasting model among the four models discussed in question 2 based on MAE and MAPE. Create a table with forecast accuracy measures MAE and MAPE for each of the four forecasting models. Apply the best forecasting model to forecast inventory in all 4 quarters of 2021. (2 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 4 = 12 points)

4. Answer the question from the case study: should DistCo acquire more warehouse capacity in 2021? (Hint: will the forecasted number of cases in the 4th quarter of 2021 be close to or greater than 292,000-294,000 cases) (8 points)