1. Problem 4.6, Page 140 (Forecasting Handout .pdf)

Imn X Bb KM_754e-20171005082628 X 2022-05-10 15.26.17 BUSN 3430 X 4 2022-04-12 15.38.17 BUSN 3430 X -1-prod-fleet02-xythos.content.blackboardcdn.com/61aab133e7df2/15227623?X-Blackboard-$3-Bucket=learn-us-east-1-prod-fle T Read aloud 2 of 2/ HW 2 Chapter 4 Forecasting 141 4.8 Daily high temperatures in St. Louis for the lastretch were as follows: 93. 94. 93. 95, 96. 88. 90 (yestering The forecast for Monday was derived by observing Monday's demand level and setting Monday's forecast level equal to this "Forecast the high temperature moons. "sing a *-day mowing aver demand level. Subsequent Inrecasts were derived by using exponen. Forecast the high temperature today. using a 2 day moving aver tal smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.25, 'sing this expo hential smoothing method. what is the forecast for Big Mac demand ) Calculate the mean absolute deviation based on a 2-day moving for Friday" PX average. My 4.13 As you can see in the following table. demand for d) Compute the mean squared error for the 2-day moving average. [can transplant surgery at Washington General Hospital has ) Calculate the mean absolute percent error for the 2-day moving increased steadily in the past few years average. PX ... 4.9 Dell uses the CRS chip in some of its laptop computers Year The prices for the chip during the past 12 months were as follows: Heart Transplants 45 50 52 56 58 Month Price per Chip Month Price per Chip $1.80 The director of medical services predicted 6 years age that demand January July 1.80 in year I would be 41 surgeries February 1.67 August 1.83 March 1,70 September 1.70 April 1.85 October 1.65 May 1.90 November 1.70 1.87 December 1.75 a) Use a 2-month moving average on all the data and plot the aver- ages and the prices. ") Use a 3-month moving average and add the 3-month plot to the graph created in part (a). ) Which is better (using the mean absolute deviation): the 2-month average or the 3-month average? d) Compute the forecasts for each month using exponential smooth- ing. with an initial forecast for January of $1.80. Use 0. = . 1. then =.3, and finally a = .5. Using MAD, which ( is the best? PX 4.10 Data collected on the yearly registrations for a Six Sigma seminar at the Quality College are shown in the following table: Year 2 3 6 7 8 10 11 Registrations 4 6 4 5 10 8 7 9 12 14 15 000) a) Develop a 3-year moving average to forecast registrations from a) Use exponential smoothing, first with a smoothing constant of .6 year 4 to year 12. and then with one of .9, to develop forecasts for years 2 through 6. 6) Estimate demand again for years 4 to 12 with a 3-year weighted b) Use a 3-year moving average to forecast demand in years 4. 5. moving average in which registrations in the most recent year and 6. are given a weight of 2, and registrations in the other 2 years are c) Use the trend-projection method to forecast demand in years 1 cach given a weight of 1. through 6. ) Graph the original data and the two forecasts. Which of the two d) With MAD as the criterion, which of the four forecasting meth- forecasting methods seems better? ods is best PX 4.11 a) Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing con- . . 4.14 Following are two weekly forecasts made by two dif- stant of 0.3 to forecast the registrations at the seminar given in ferent methods for the number of gallons of gasoline. in thousands chal demand Q Search O a M