10. In a paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the...

 

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10. In a paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS) entitled "Evidence on the impact of sustained exposure to air pollution on life expectancy from China's Huai River policy" concluded that "an arbitrary Chinese policy greatly increases total suspended particulates (TSPs) air pollution is causing the 500 million residents of Northern China to lose more than 2.5 billion life years of life expectancy" (based on a point estimate of a 5.04 year reduction in life expectancy (L.E.) for those just North of the Huai river boundary). The authors used a regression discontinuity design (RDD) methodology to obtain the point estimates using cubic model as represented by the figure below: Life Expectancy(Years) 21 c8 80 SL 70 65 The estimated change in life expectancy (and height of the brace) just north of the Huai River is -5.04 years and is statistically significant (95% CI: -8.81, -1.27). -20 0 -10 Degrees North of the Huai River Boundary O L.E. in South T 10 O L.E. in North Fitted Values from Cubic in Latitude 20 (a) In the example noted above what is the dependent variable and what is the "running variable"? (2 marks) (b) Write out the form of the RDD model the authors estimated as their preferred model, and the null hypothesis the authors are testing. (4 marks) (c) Why might one be worried about the analysis undertaken in this case and hence the conclusions that are drawn? (4 marks) 10. In a paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS) entitled "Evidence on the impact of sustained exposure to air pollution on life expectancy from China's Huai River policy" concluded that "an arbitrary Chinese policy greatly increases total suspended particulates (TSPs) air pollution is causing the 500 million residents of Northern China to lose more than 2.5 billion life years of life expectancy" (based on a point estimate of a 5.04 year reduction in life expectancy (L.E.) for those just North of the Huai river boundary). The authors used a regression discontinuity design (RDD) methodology to obtain the point estimates using cubic model as represented by the figure below: Life Expectancy(Years) 21 c8 80 SL 70 65 The estimated change in life expectancy (and height of the brace) just north of the Huai River is -5.04 years and is statistically significant (95% CI: -8.81, -1.27). -20 0 -10 Degrees North of the Huai River Boundary O L.E. in South T 10 O L.E. in North Fitted Values from Cubic in Latitude 20 (a) In the example noted above what is the dependent variable and what is the "running variable"? (2 marks) (b) Write out the form of the RDD model the authors estimated as their preferred model, and the null hypothesis the authors are testing. (4 marks) (c) Why might one be worried about the analysis undertaken in this case and hence the conclusions that are drawn? (4 marks)

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a In the example noted above the dependent variable is life expectancy LE measured in years The running variable is the distance in degrees north of t... View the full answer