A$7-1($Static$)$ Given the project information... A$7-1($Static$)$ Given the project information...

Given the project information in the following table, what is the probability of completing the National Holiday Toy project in $93-$

time units? Hint: Use the $=$NORM.S$.$DIST$($z$,$ TRUE$)$ function in Excel to compute the probability. $($Carry at least $3$ decimal

places in all intermediate calculations and the Z value. Enter your final probability answer to $3$ decimal places.$)$

Acct. ID Description Predecessor Optimistic $($a$)$ Most Likely $($m$)$

Pessimistic

$($b$)$

Activity Time

$($te$)$

Variance

$[($b $-$ a$)/6]2$ Critical $?$

$1$ Design package None $61224139$ x

$2$ Design product $1161928204$ x

$3$ Build package $1471071$

$4$ Secure patent $2242736284$

$5$ Build product $21729473025$ x

$6$ Paint $3,4,5471071$ x

$7$ Test market $6131619161$ x

$+/-0\mathrm{.}005$ The probability of completing the project in $93$ time units is $0\mathrm{.}866$

Explanation:

For the critical path, the variance is $9+4+25+1+1=40.$ The resulting Z$-$value is:

Using the Excel function $=$NORM.S$.$DIST$(1\mathrm{.}107,$TRUE$)$ results in a probability of $0\mathrm{.}866$ of finishing the project within $93$ time

units.

Worksheet Difficulty: $3$ Hard

A$7-1($Static$)$ Given

the project

information...

Learning Objective: A$07-$

$01$ Calculate basic Pert

Simulation projections.

Z $=====1.10$