A company is deciding between using a simple forecasting method and a more complex one. Under which condition would a simple forecasting method generally outperform a complex one?

A company is deciding between using a simple forecasting method and a more complex one. Under which condition would a simple forecasting method generally outperform a complex one?

When the forecast period is long$-$term and requires consideration of multiple variables.

When the product demand exhibits significant seasonal and cyclical patterns.

When there is a high degree of random variation in demand, making complex models more accurate.

When the assumptions in the complex model do not align with real$-$world changes in the market.