Question: A major obstacle to developing sales plans and their respective control procedures is the lack of meaningful data for decision-making. The use of stochastic models
A major obstacle to developing sales plans and their respective control procedures is the lack of meaningful data for decision-making. The use of stochastic models in sales management can help improve short-term sales strategies and procedures that will aid in the long-term development of salespeople. Thus, a renowned insurer in the country hires him to provide a mathematical model to help them analyze their telephone sales. You analyze the historical data and find the following: - In each call, the interest of the person can be identified, this term denotes the propensity to buy as perceived by the seller when making a call. You decide to classify that interest as low, medium, and high. - When the interest is low, there is only a 5% chance of making a sale. This probability increases by 5% as the interest category increases. - When the interest is low, there is a 45% probability that a sale will not be made. There is a high quantum leap when going to medium interest, as this probability decreases to 10% and then ends at 5% when interest is high. - As several calls are made to the same client, it is identified that, if their interest is low, they will maintain so with a 10% probability. The chances of going to medium or high interest if you previously had low interest are equal. - If the interest of a client was intermediate in a previous call, in the next one it remains the same with a 25% probability, the interest decreases with a 35% probability and 15% of the clients go to high interests. - When an external client has a great interest in the insurance package that is offered, in a next call it is maintained with a 15% probability, but has the same probability of falling to the medium or low interest categories.
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