Question: A manager is trying to decide whether to build a small, medium, or large facility. Demand can be low, average, or high, with the estimated
A manager is trying to decide whether to build a small, medium, or large facility. Demand can be low, average, or high, with the estimated probabilities being
0.40,
0.35,
and
0.25,
respectively.
A small facility is expected to earn an after-tax net present value of just
$11,000
if demand is low. If demand is average, the small facility is expected to earn
$15,000;
it can be increased to medium size to earn a net present value of
$30,000.
If demand is high, the small facility is expected to earn
$25,000
and can be expanded to medium size to earn
$50,000
or to large size to earn
$150,000.
A medium-sized facility is expected to lose an estimated
$25,000
if demand is low and earn
$90,000
if demand is average. If demand is high, the medium-sized facility is expected to earn a net present value of
$100,000;
it can be expanded to a large size for a net payoff of
$135,000.
If a large facility is built and demand is high, earnings are expected to be
$160,000.
If demand is average for the large facility, the present value is expected to be
$80,000;
if demand is low, the facility is expected to lose
$80,000.
What should management do to achieve the highest expected payoff?
The management should build a
Small Medium Large Facility choose one
in order to achieve the highest expected payoff of
$__________.
(Enter your response as a whole number.)
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