Question: A project has four activities (A, B, C, and D) that must be performed sequentially. The probability distributions for the time required to complete each
A project has four activities (A, B, C, and D) that must be performed sequentially. The probability distributions for the time required to complete each of the activities are as follows:
| Activity | Activity Time (weeks) | Probability | ||
| A | 3 | 0.30 | ||
| 4 | 0.33 | |||
| 5 | 0.26 | |||
| 6 | 0.11 | |||
| B | 7 | 0.19 | ||
| 9 | 0.55 | |||
| 11 | 0.26 | |||
| C | 15 | 0.10 | ||
| 17 | 0.22 | |||
| 19 | 0.44 | |||
| 21 | 0.20 | |||
| 23 | 0.04 | |||
| D | 8 | 0.66 | ||
| 10 | 0.34 | |||
A. Provide the base-case, worst-case, and best-case calculations for the time to complete the project.
| Activity | Base case | Worst case | Best case |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | ----weeks | ------ weeks | ----weeks |
| B | ---- weeks | ------- weeks | -----weeks |
| C | ---- weeks | ------weeks | ------weeks |
| D | -----weeks | -----weeks | -----weeks |
| Total | -----weeks | -------weeks | ------weeks |
B. Use the random numbers 0.8634, 0.8928, 0.7531 and 0.7648 to simulate the completion time of the project in weeks.
| Activity | Random Number | Completion Time |
|---|---|---|
| A | 0.8634 | -------weeks |
| B | 0.8928 | -------weeks |
| C | 0.7531 | --------weeks |
| D | 0.7648 | --------weeks |
| Total | ----weeks |
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