Problem 12-09 (Algorithmic)Do not answer if you are not surePlease read all the numbers before you answer.Do not answer if you are not surePlease read all the numbers before you answer.

A project has four activities (A, B, C, and D) that must be performed sequentially. The probability distributions for the time required to complete each of the activities are as follows:

Activity		Activity Time (weeks)		Probability
A		3		0.27
		4		0.34
		5		0.22
		6		0.17
B		8		0.24
		10		0.53
		12		0.23
C		13		0.07
		15		0.22
		17		0.35
		19		0.20
		21		0.16
D		7		0.59
		9		0.41

1. Provide the base-case, worst-case, and best-case calculations for the time to complete the project.

   Activity	Base case	Worst case	Best case
   A	fill in the blank 1 weeks	fill in the blank 2 weeks	fill in the blank 3 weeks
   B	fill in the blank 4 weeks	fill in the blank 5 weeks	fill in the blank 6 weeks
   C	fill in the blank 7 weeks	fill in the blank 8 weeks	fill in the blank 9 weeks
   D	fill in the blank 10 weeks	fill in the blank 11 weeks	fill in the blank 12 weeks
   Total	fill in the blank 13 weeks	fill in the blank 14 weeks	fill in the blank 15 weeks

2. Use the random numbers 0.1299, 0.9931, 0.836 and 0.6303 to simulate the completion time of the project in weeks.

   Activity	Random Number	Completion Time
   A	0.1299	fill in the blank 16 weeks
   B	0.9931	fill in the blank 17 weeks
   C	0.836	fill in the blank 18 weeks
   D	0.6303	fill in the blank 19 weeks
   Total		fill in the blank 20 weeks

3. Discuss how simulation could be used to estimate the probability that the project can be completed in weeks or less. Simulation provides a distribution of project completion times. The

   meanpercentage

   of times weeks and under can be used to estimate the probability that the project will be completed within weeks.

Do not answer if you are not surePlease read all the numbers before you answer.Do not answer if you are not surePlease read all the numbers before you answer.Do not answer if you are not surePlease read all the numbers before you answer.Do not answer if you are not surePlease read all the numbers before you answer.Do not answer if you are not surePlease read all the numbers before you answer.Do not answer if you are not surePlease read all the numbers before you answer.Do not answer if you are not surePlease read all the numbers before you answer.Do not answer if you are not surePlease read all the numbers before you answer.