Question: a) The following table shows the forecasts for a data set comprised of 12 variables, according to exponential smoothing with =0.5 method. (please write 2-digit
a) The following table shows the forecasts for a data set comprised of 12 variables, according to exponential smoothing with =0.5 method. (please write 2-digit decimal numbers as answers)
Complete the blank cells in the Table.
| period | sales | forecast (Exp. Sm. with alpha = 0.5) | error | absolute error |
| 1 | 300 | 300.00 | - | - |
| 2 | 250 | 300.00 | -50.00 | 50.00 |
| 3 | 270 | 275.00 | -5.00 | 5.00 |
| 4 | 320 | 272.50 | 47.50 | 47.50 |
| 5 | 240 | 296.25 | -56.25 | 56.25 |
| 6 | 330 | 268.13 | 61.88 | 61.88 |
| 7 | 280 | 299.06 | -19.06 | 19.06 |
| 8 | 310 | Answer | Answer | Answer |
| 9 | 350 | Answer | Answer | Answer |
| 10 | 340 | Answer | Answer | Answer |
| 11 | 290 | Answer | Answer | Answer |
| 12 | 320 | Answer | Answer | Answer |
| sum | 3600 | 31.22 | 376.73 |
b) Compute the MFE (mean forecast error) and MAD (mean absolute deviation) values of the above forecasting method.
MFE = Answer360031.22376.73 /Answer = Answer (please write a 2-digit decimal number for this blank)
MAD = Answer360031.22376.73 /Answer = Answer (please write a 2-digit decimal number for this blank)
c) Assume that the above Table shows the monthly demand distribution of the given product, i.e. each point in the Table is observed with a probability of 1/12. If the inventory management policy that is used for this product is (I, S) policy with I=1 month, S = 300, compute the fill rate and the service level. (Hint: Average demand per replenishment cycle would be equal to the average demand in I=1 month.) Average demand per replenishment cycle = Answer (please write an integer value for this blank) Average number of backorders replenishment cycle = Answer
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