Question: activity follows optimistic duration most likely direction pessimistic duration A - 4 6 14 B A,C 3 4 5 C - 3 5 13 D

activity follows optimistic duration most likely direction pessimistic duration
A - 4 6 14
B A,C 3 4 5
C - 3 5 13
D A,E 12 18 24
E - 8 10 18
F A,E 4 6 8
G B,F 7 8 9
H G 10 12 14
I G 5 6 7
J D,I 5 7 9

a) Calculate mean duration and standard deviation for all the activities using the beta distribution. [4pts] b) Construct a network diagram for this problem using the mean durations calculated in part (a), calculate the LS(Foll.), ES(Prec.) and total float for all the activities, and hence identify the critical path . What is the mean completion time for the project? What is the standard deviation of the critical path? [30 pts ] c) What is the 92% confidence interval for the length of the critical path? [4 pts] d) Assuming the probability distribution of the length of the critical path can be approximated by a normal distribution with the mean and standard deviation calculated in part (b), calculate the probability of completing the project within 42 weeks. [4 pts] e) Calculate the probability of completing the project between 35 and 40 weeks? [4 pts] f) Answer the project managers question: I want to tell the client that there is a 10.03% chance the project will take longer than X weeks - what figure should I give them (i.e. find X)? [4]

(please show work step by step and excel file)

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