Question: activity follows optimistic duration most likely direction pessimistic duration A - 4 6 14 B A,C 3 4 5 C - 3 5 13 D
| activity | follows | optimistic duration | most likely direction | pessimistic duration |
| A | - | 4 | 6 | 14 |
| B | A,C | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| C | - | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| D | A,E | 12 | 18 | 24 |
| E | - | 8 | 10 | 18 |
| F | A,E | 4 | 6 | 8 |
| G | B,F | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| H | G | 10 | 12 | 14 |
| I | G | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| J | D,I | 5 | 7 | 9 |
a) Calculate mean duration and standard deviation for all the activities using the beta distribution. [4pts] b) Construct a network diagram for this problem using the mean durations calculated in part (a), calculate the LS(Foll.), ES(Prec.) and total float for all the activities, and hence identify the critical path . What is the mean completion time for the project? What is the standard deviation of the critical path? [30 pts ] c) What is the 92% confidence interval for the length of the critical path? [4 pts] d) Assuming the probability distribution of the length of the critical path can be approximated by a normal distribution with the mean and standard deviation calculated in part (b), calculate the probability of completing the project within 42 weeks. [4 pts] e) Calculate the probability of completing the project between 35 and 40 weeks? [4 pts] f) Answer the project managers question: I want to tell the client that there is a 10.03% chance the project will take longer than X weeks - what figure should I give them (i.e. find X)? [4]
(please show work step by step and excel file)
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