Question: An independent electronics store is contemplating either opening another store or expanding its existing location. The payoff table for these two decisions is: s1 s2

An independent electronics store is contemplating either opening another store or expanding its existing location. The payoff table for these two decisions is:

s1

s2

s3

New Store

-$60,000

$15,000

$180,000

Expand

-$30,000

$15,000

$90,000

Peter, the owner of the store, has calculated the indifference probability for the lottery having a payoff of $180,000 with probability p and -$60,000 with probability (1-p) with the following sure amounts as follows:

Amount

Indifference Probability (p)

-$30,000

0.4

$15,000

0.7

$90,000

0.9

  1. Suppose Peter has defined the utility of -$60,000 to be 0 and the utility of $180,000 to be 100. What would be the utility values for -$30,000, $15,000, and $90,000 based on the indifference probabilities?
  2. Suppose P(s1) = .4, P(s2) = .3, and P(s3) = .3. Which decision should Peter make? Compare with the decision using the expected value approach. Is Peter a risk taker or is he risk averse?

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