Approach

Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next

month.

Remember to select the forecasting technique that produces the forecast error nearest to zero. For example:

a$.$ Na$$ve Forecast is $230$ and the Forecast Error is $-15.$

b$.3-$Month Moving Forecast is $290$ and the Forecast Error is $-75.$

c$.$ Exponential Smoothing Forecast for $\mathrm{.}2$ is $308$ and the Forecast Error is $-93.$

d$.$ Exponential Smoothing Forecast for $\mathrm{.}5$ is $279$ and the Forecast Error is $-64.$

e$.$ Seasonal Forecast is $297$ and the Forecast Error is $-82.$

The forecast for the next month would be $230$ as the Na$$ve Forecast had the Forecast Error closest to zero with a

$-15.$ This forecasting technique was the best performing technique for that month. You do not need to do any

external analysis$-$the forecast error for each strategy is already calculated for you in the tables below.

Year $1$