b) Consider the following models : = 0.32 + 0.151 0.651 : = 0.12 + 0.451 + 0.252 You are given the following information for y and u until day t from day t-2: = 2.15, 1 = 3.05, 2 = 2.50 = 0.13, 1 = 0.15, 2 = 0.25 Produce the forecasts for the next 4 days (i.e. for days t +1, t +2, t + 3, t + 4) from both models.

give a good explanation for it and the role and four mal