B On the "SES Model" tab, take your data and create a simple exponential smoothing model. Choose a value of alpha that you feel is appropriate. Use this model to develop a forecast for the four quarters beyond your data. Calculate MAD and Bias using the last 8 known quarters of your data. Briefly discuss your choice of alpha and what the MAD and bias indicate about the model. Put your discussion in a box. Highlight the box in yellow. Quarterly Revenue for PepsiCo, Inc. 2000-2003 (millions of dollars) PepsiCo Revenue Year Quarter (Millions) 2000 4,191 1 2 3 2 4,928 2000 4,191 4,928 4,909 6,410 3 4,909 2001 5,330 6,713 6,906 7,986 4 6,410 2002 5,101 6,178 6,376 7,457 2001 1 5,330 2003 5,530 6,538 6,830 8,073 2 6,713 3 6,906 4 7,986 Source: Standard & Poor's Stock Report, April 2, 2005 2002 1 5,101 2 6,178 3 6,376 4 7,457 2002 5 620 Select Data 1.0 DATA 2.0 SES Model 3.0 Trend and Seasonal Model Sheet3 +