Case 7.2 Logon Project After signing the contract, the management at Midwest Parcel Distribution (MPD) discovers that for many reasons it would be advantageous to complete the project in 40 weeks. It is too late for MPD to "require the contractor Iron Butterfly to complete it in that time, but nonetheless it discusses the possibility with Iron Butterfly Company's project manager, Frank Wesley. Reviewing the network diagram (below, Figure 7.26), Frank checks the feasibility of this and then asks his managers and technical staff to give him three time estimates for every activity in the project. The estimates are given below in Table 7.7. N S U w O Y H K V N M R L Q T Questions 1. What is the probability of finishing within 40 weeks? 2. Do you foresee any significant risk of a delay that the calculations for (1) above do not take into account? 3. Determine the most likely project duration. Optimistic Duration Activity (Weeks) H 10 I 8 J 1 K L 2 Most Likely Duration (Weeks) 10 8 Pessimistic Duration (Weeks) 10 16 6 6 4 4 4 2 N M 2 4 5 4 4 10 LO 5 5 5 LO N 5 5 - ZO OLED> 3 XN 3 3 3 3 1 6 3 3 3 1 1 N 1 3 2 3 5 LO V W 5 2 2 8 3 3 3 8 8 8 6 6 6