CASE STUDY: BLUE WATER BRIDGE - FORECASTING A Case Study of the Blue Water Bridge-Forecasting The Blue Water Bridge spans the Saint Clair River, and carries international traffic between Port Huron, Michigan and Point Edward and Samia, Ontario, Located near interchange of 1-94 and 1-69, the bridge forms a critical gateway linking Canada and the United States. To forecast eastbound and westbound monthly truck volume of blue water bridge from 1985 march to 1996 march they applied simple exponential smoothing and linear trend MANNER January 84 February 84 March 84 April 84 May 84 June 84 July 84 August 84 September 84 October 84 November 84 December 84 Westbound and eastbound truck volume data from Jan 1984 to Feb 1985 by each month. January 85 February 85 Month Westbound 13253 12878 14716 14186 15699 15619 13799 14612 14411 16232 15603 Put Murse 13525 15706 14125 Port Saria Gessele Eastbound 12968 12689 14444 13820 15596 15323 13448 14539 14165 15964 15308 13177 15513 14250 Mate CS CASE STUDY: FORECASTING-MOVING AVERAGE Error E (A-F) January, 1984 February, 1984 West Actual (A) Bound March, 1984 MOQ June, 1984 April, 1984 July, 1984 May, 1984 August, 1984 September, 1984 October, 1984 November, 1984 MAD MSE December, 1984 MAPE January, 1985 13,253 12,878 14,716 14,186 15,699 15,619 13,799 14,612 14,411 16,232 15,603 13,525 = |E| Moving Average (MA) (F) (13,253 +12,878 + 14,716) 13= 13,616 Formula = E/(n-1) = ((E/A)*100 %) - - 570 Absolute Squared Error Error JA-FI E Calculation - I 570 I 325,280 Percent Error E% - - - 4.0% Result CS #3 7