Chapter 4 Forecasting Homework Assignment

1. Daily high temperatures in St. Louis for the last week were as follows: 34, 36, 37, 39, 35, 32, and 36 (yesterday).
   1. Forecast the high temperature today, using a 3-day moving average.
   2. Forecast the high temperature today, using a 2-day moving average.

For questions c-e use all the days where a 3-day forecast value is possible.

3. Calculate the mean absolute deviation based on a 3-day moving average.
4. Compute the mean squared error for the 3-day moving average.
5. Calculate the mean absolute percent error for the 3-day moving averag

2. Data collected on the yearly registrations for a Six Sigma seminar at the Quality College are shown in the following table:

Year	1	2	3	4	5	6
Registrations	4500	6500	6775	6225	8075	8520
Forecast (=0.5)	5000
Forecast (=0.1)	5000

1. Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.5 and 0.1 to forecast years 2-6.
2. What is the MAD value for each forecast (1-6)?
3. What is the MSE value for each forecast (1-6)?
4. Which forecast is better? Why?