Chapters $3$ & $4$ Homework

The chart and table below show orange production $($in $1000$s of tons per year$)$ in the nation of Cyprus. Use the following information to answer Questions $13.$

Question $1$: $(5$ pts$)$

What patterns are visible in this dataset $($Note that years are typically not considered to be seasons when looking for seasonality$)?$

a$.$ Trend ONLY

b$.$ Trend and Random Variation

c$.$ Trend, Seasonality, and Random Variation

d$.$ Random Variation ONLY

Question $2$: $(25$ pts total $$ show work for partial credit$)$

$($a$)$ Develop an Exponential Smoothing forecast starting at $2004$ to $2013.$ Use $=0\mathrm{.}3.$ Make the appropriate assumption regarding the forecast for $2004.(15$ pts$)$

$($b$)$ Calculate the MSE using errors starting at $2005$ through $2013.(5$ pts$)$

$($c$)$ Calculate the Tracking Signal using errors starting at $2005$ through $2013.(5$ pts$)$

Question $3$: $(20$ pts total $$ show work for partial credit$)$

$($a$)$ Develop a Na$$ve forecast starting at $2005$ to $2013.(10$ pts$)$

$($b$)$ Calculate the MSE using errors starting at $2005$ through $2013.(5$ pts$)$

$($c$)$ Calculate the Tracking Signal using errors starting at $2005$ through $2013.(5$ pts$)$

Using your forecasts from above, answer Questions $48.$

Question $4$: $(5$ pts$)$

What is your forecast $($from the Exponential Smoothing method$)$ for $2004?$

a$.48\mathrm{.}3$

b$.47\mathrm{.}3$

c$.46\mathrm{.}8$

d$.$ None of the above

Question $5$: $(5$ pts$)$

Which of the following values is closest to the forecast error for $2007($Exponential Smoothing forecast$)?$

a$.-0\mathrm{.}5$

b$.0$

c$.-5$

d$.5$

Question $6$: $(5$ pts$)$

Which of the following values is closest to the MSE value for the Exponential Smoothing forecast?

a$.529\mathrm{.}8$

b$.50\mathrm{.}5$

c$.58\mathrm{.}9$

d$.-47\mathrm{.}5$

Question $7$: $(5$ pts$)$

Which of the following values is closest to the MSE value for the Na$$ve forecast?

a$.38\mathrm{.}9$

b$.20\mathrm{.}2$

c$.-26\mathrm{.}6$

d$.350\mathrm{.}5$

Question $8$: $(5$ pts$)$

Do you see evidence of bias in the forecast?

a$.$ Yes

b$.$ No