Consider the following time series data.

Week	1	2	3	4	5	6
Value	19	14	17	12	17	14

Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Round your answers to two decimal places.

Week	Time Series Value	Forecast
1	19
2	14
3	17
4	12
5	17
6	14

MSE: The forecast for week 7:

Use = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Round your answers to two decimal places.

Week	Time Series Value	Forecast
1	19
2	14
3	17
4	12
5	17
6	14

MSE: The forecast for week 7:

Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? Explain.

5. Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for = 0.2. Find a value of for the smallest MSE. Round your answer to three decimal places. alpha=