Current Situation: Steve and Wes know they must prepare$/$use forecasts to make effective decisions for the business.

Presently, Wes and Steve must decide how many apples to purchase for the business$$especially since they are perishable and

can get damaged$/$smooshed$.$ The pair have documented apple sales for $15$ periods as shown below. With this data and

information provided on Page $2,$ create a forecast $($rounding to $2$ decimal points$)$ for period $16$ using $4$ different methods:

$1.$ Na$$ve

$2.$ Moving Average

$3.$ Weighted Moving Average

$4.$ Exponential Smoothing

Period Sales $($units$)$

$1112$

$2109$

$3147$

$4169$

$5195$

$6187$

$7210$

$8203$

$9237$

$10255$

$11268$

$12287$

$13308$

$14299$

$15320$

PLEASE DO NOT SUBMIT THIS PAGE

S$24$ BUAD$306$ Murphy LAST NAME $\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_$ FIRST $\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_$

Assignment $2$ Forecasting $($Pt $1)$ Due: Fri, $3/1$ at $10$:$20$am EST

Instructions: Print this page, reproduce by hand or complete via computer. Regardless, you must note answers on$/$in the

line$/$box provided ONLY. All supporting math must be rounded to $2$ decimal points and shown in the corresponding

space. If you write an answer and math is not included or does not correspond, you will receive no points. Note: You must

write neatly. If I cannot read it$,$ you will receive zero points. DO NOT CROSS OUT WORK. If you make an error, start over

or use white out. Remember: Do not write in red ink $($I use for grading$).$

When completed: Take a photo of this page$/$save file and upload via the corresponding Assignment link in Canvas by the

due date. Remember: No $.$HEIC files are permitted. No red ink!

Write answer$/$# in box.

I will look to the left for math

and supporting info.

$1.$ Na$$ve Forecast Answer:

Math$/$Rationale $($must show$)$: $(2$ pts$)$

$\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_$

$2.$ Four Period Moving Average $(4$PMA$)$ Answer:

Math $($must show$)$: $(2$ pts$)$

$\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_$

$3.$ Weighted Moving Average using weights of $\mathrm{.}7,\mathrm{.}2$ and $\mathrm{.}1$ Answer:

Math $($must show$)$: $(2$ pts$)$

$\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_$

$4.$ If you had to choose between the $4$PMA and the Weighted Moving Answer

Average for this forecast, which technique would you choose and why $(2$ pts$)$

$($State in one brief sentence$).$ FYI$$it has nothing to do with accuracy$)$:

Reason $($must show$)$:

$\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_$

$5.$ Exponential Smoothing Forecast using $\backslash$alpha $=\mathrm{.}10$ and initial forecast Answer:

for Period $12$ is $290.$ You MUST round to $2$ decimal points. $(7$ pts$)$

Math $($must show$)$: