D E F G . K 0 Parts Cost (Normal Distribution) Mean $90 This is the Sanotronics simulation with 100 trials that was covered in the lecture. Here, we want to illustrate how the results can change when different distributions are used for some of the random variables. Suppose the following changes occur in the assumptions. - Parts cost follows a normal distribution with mean of $90 and standard deviation of $10. -Demand now follows a uniform distribution between 7,500 and 30,000 units. The appropriate changes have been made in the Excel sheet. Do not change the given random numbers. Round all answers up to 2 decimal places. 1) What is the direct labor cost per unit for trial 1? 2) What is the parts cost per unit for trial 1? 3) What is the demand for trial 1? 4) What is the mean profit? 5) What is the maximum profit? 5) What is the probability of loss (in %) ? 6) What is the value at risk (rounded to whole $)? Remember to give the absolute value. 7) Is this more or less risky than the original example solved in class? Cost per Unit Standrard Deviation $10 $43 $44 $45 Demand (Uniform Distribution) $46 Lower Bound 7500 $47 Upper Bound 30000 45.00 $ A B C 1 Sanotronics Simulation with 100 Trials 2 3 Data 4 Selling Price per Unit $249 5 Adm/Adv Cost $1,000,000 6 7 Direct Labor Cost 8 Lower End of Upper End of 9 Probability Interval Interval 10 0.1 0.0 0.1 11 0.2 0.1 0.3 12 0.4 0.3 0.7 13 0.2 0.7 0.9 14 0 0.1 0.9 1.0 15 Expected Direct Labor Cost = 16 17 Simulation Trials 18 19 (1) (2) (3) Direct Labor Cost 20 Trial Radom Number per Unit 21 1 0.385 22 2 0.528 23 3 0.037 24 4 0.587 25 5 0.087 115 95 0.572 116 96 0.098 117 97 0.024 118 98 0.392 119 99 120 100 0.381 121 Average 122 123 124 125 126 (4) (5) (8) (7) First-Year Demand Parts Cost per Unit Profit Radom Number 0.909 0.195 0.574 0.028 0.848 0.756 0.753 0.822 0.703 0.560 0.1371 (6) Radom Number 0.520 0.049 0.963 0.554 0.782 0.066 0.545 0.562 0.335 0.507 0.831 0.670