Develop an appropriate model for bookstore management to use to forecast computer demand for the next

academic year $($fall$,$ spring, and summer$)$ and indicate how accurate it appears to be$.$ Use each forecasting

technique listed below. Note: You may want to try others!

$$ Moving average

$$ Exponential smoothing

$$ Linear regression $($with time period as the independent variable$)$

Evaluate the accuracy of each method using the MSE, MAD and MAPE. Through trial and error, determine

the best forecasting technique within each category and the best overall technique. In other words, you will

need to experiment with different moving averages $()$ and different values of smoothing parameter $().$

Suggestion: Do not do this by hand! Use Excel and show results for different forecasting techniques.

$2.$ Using the best techniques identified above, what is your forecast for computer sales in the next year?

$3.$ Do you observe any patterns in computer sales from one year to the next? What might explain the variation

from year to year? What additional information would be useful to the bookstore in determining future

computer sales?

Year Semester Computers Sold Year Semester Computers Sold Year Semester Computers Sold

$2005$ Fall $7552011$ Fall $9112017$ Fall $1421$

$2006$ Spring $3272012$ Spring $2952018$ Spring $250$

$2006$ Summer $2022012$ Summer $2282018$ Summer $390$

$2006$ Fall $8532012$ Fall $9742018$ Fall $1577$

$2007$ Spring $3592013$ Spring $2402019$ Spring $360$

$2007$ Summer $2202013$ Summer $2552019$ Summer $405$

$2007$ Fall $9122013$ Fall $10812019$ Fall $1782$

$2008$ Spring $4382014$ Spring $3432020$ Spring $468$

$2008$ Summer $2332014$ Summer $2672020$ Summer $445$

$2008$ Fall $9842014$ Fall $11452020$ Fall $1871$

$2009$ Spring $4962015$ Spring $4402021$ Spring $600$

$2009$ Summer $2442015$ Summer $2912021$ Summer $97$

$2009$ Fall $5452015$ Fall $5742021$ Fall $1160$

$2010$ Spring $4162016$ Spring $4012022$ Spring $504$

$2010$ Summer $2022016$ Summer $3202022$ Summer $81$

$2010$ Fall $8362016$ Fall $13162022$ Fall $1194$

$2011$ Spring $2482017$ Spring $2242023$ Spring $468$

$2011$ Summer $2162017$ Summer $3552023$ Summer $445$